【テクニカル講座】移動平均線とは?

移動平均線は、一定期間の平均価格を線でつなぎ、ジグザグした値動きのブレを慣らして価格トレンドの方向や強さを見るためのテクニカルチャートです。
FXチャートに限らず、テクニカル分析の中で最もポピュラーで基本的な分析手法です。
移動平均には単純移動平均、加重移動平均、指数平滑移動平均など計算方法によって様々な種類がありますが、基本となる単純移動平均を例に説明します。

単純移動平均線(SMA,Simple Moving Average)は、計算の対象となる期間の複数の終値について平均値を算出し、期間をずらしながら線でつないで表示したものです。
たとえば20日移動平均(20SMA)であれば、本日を含めた過去20日間の終値を合計し、日数の20で割って平均した数値を1日ごとに計算して線でつなぎます。

移動平均線の使い方

移動平均線を使った分析手法としては、移動平均線と値動きの位置関係に注目した「グランビルの法則」が知られていますが、まずは、より分かりやすく売買の判定ができる「ゴールデン・クロス」と「デッド・クロス」を学んでいきましょう。

この分析手法では、計算対象の期間が異なる2本の移動平均線を利用して相場の反転を見ます。移動平均線は、計算対象の期間が長くなるほど変動が緩やかになり、価格の変動に対して反応が鈍くなるという特徴があります。
2本の移動平均線のクロスは、この特徴を活用した分析手法で、長期間の平均値と短期間の平均値との方向や位置関係から今後の値動きを予想します。

1.ゴールデン・クロス

短期の移動平均線が、長期の移動平均線を下から上へクロスすることをゴールデン・クロスと言います。
長期的な値動きに対して、短期的な値動きが強く上昇している場合に出現する買いのサインとなります。

2.デッド・クロス

ゴールデン・クロスの逆で、短期の移動平均線が、長期の移動平均線を上から下へクロスすることをデッド・クロスと呼びます。
長期的な値動きに対して、短期的に強く下落している場合に出現し、売りのサインとなります。

移動平均線の弱点

移動平均線は、大変シンプルに相場状況を判断できるツールとして、今も広く利用されているテクニカル指標です。また、移動平均線がテクニカル分析の基本とされるのは、他の数多くのテクニカル指標に移動平均線の考え方が応用されているためです。

しかし、移動平均線には弱点があります。
それは、価格の変動に対して移動平均線の反応が遅れ、シグナルの発出に必ずタイムラグが発生することです。

移動平均線は、その計算方法から一目瞭然ですが、過去の終値の影響を直接受けるため、常に値動きを後追いして変動し、相場に先行することがない指標です。
そのため、移動平均線だけで相場の行方を予測することは困難であり、値動きの結果、相場状況がどうなっているかを確認する指標であると理解しておくべきでしょう。

従来より、移動平均線にはタイムラグという弱点を克服しようと試みたバリエーションが存在しています。
加重移動平均線(WMA)は、平均値を算出する際に最新のデータを最も重視し、古いデータほど影響度が少なくなる様に比重を掛けて計算します。指数平滑移動平均線(EMA)は、更に直近の比重を高めてタイムラグを低減させた移動平均線の発展型です。

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