今更聞けない?半減期って何?

ビットコイン半減期とは?仮想通貨価格への影響と警戒ポイントを解説

仮想通貨ビットコイン半減期とは

半減期とは、ビットコイン(BTC)など仮想通貨の「マイニング(採掘)」という仕組みを維持するため、マイナーがブロックを生成する度にマイナーに支払われるマイニング報酬が半分になるイベントのこと。

発行枚数上限があらかじめ設定されている仮想通貨は、ある特定のタイミングでマイニングできる量・採掘量(供給量)が減るように定められており、これを半減期(bitcoin halving)と呼ぶ。

ビットコインでは、トランザクション(取引)をまとめたブロックが生成される度に、そのための計算作業を行った採掘者(マイナー)に対し、報酬として新しいビットコインが渡される。この作業をゴールドを採掘する行為にたとえ、「マイニング」と呼ばれる。ビットコインはブロック数が210,000に到達する毎にマイニング報酬が半分になっていく仕組みとなる。

半減期の目的とペース

半減期の目的は、大きくわけて2つある。

  1. 通貨の流通量の増加量を抑制することで、その通貨の「希少性」を高めること
  2. 通貨の発行量の引締めによって、インフレーション発生を抑制し、価格の安定化を図ること

ビットコインの場合、最大供給量2100万BTCと上限が決められており、半減期を迎えることによって報酬が半減。2019年時点ですでに全体の80%強が発行されており、状況を追うごとに発行される通貨量が減少する仕組みだ。

ビットコインの半減期は、4年に1回のペース(厳密にはブロック数に依存)で行われる。

黎明期である2009年始めのマイニング報酬は50BTCであったが、2012年に1回目の半減期を迎え、2016年に2回目の半減期を経て、現在の12.5BTCへと半減した。今回の半減期では、これが6.25BTCになる見込みだ。

—–難易度調整の仕組み

仮想通貨のマイニング(採掘)を行うコンピューターの性能や計算能力は日進月歩であり、ブロックの生成ペースも上昇することになる。ビットコイン(BTC)には、ブロック生成のペースをある程度コントロールするため、計算作業の難易度を調整する仕組みが存在する。

ビットコインは、1日で平均144ブロックが生成されるよう調整されている。半減期前の現在は、1ブロックで12.5ビットコインが報酬として渡されるため、1日1800BTCが新たに供給され、4年間で約21万ブロック生成される計算になる。

—–ビットコイン価格への影響と関心

ビットコインの2016年7月9日(前回半減期)のチャートを確認すると、約1ヶ月半前から価格が上昇し始め、半減期の3週間前に短期天井のピークを迎えた後に反落していた。

当時の価格はBTC=800ドル(8.5万円)前後、現在価格8000〜9000ドルの1/10であったが、その後の仮想通貨バブルを経て指数関数的な高騰を見せ、2017年末にはBTC=20,000ドル(220万円)を記録している。

ビットコインの市場規模は、4年前とは比較にならないほど拡大した。半減期に対する市場の関心度も飛躍的に増しており、株式市場など国際金融市場の影響を受けやすくなるなど、当時とは環境が大きく異なる点には留意したい。

なお、特定の単語がどれだけGoogle検索されているかを可視化した「Google Trends」を確認すると、半減期の英語表記である「bitcoin halving」の検索数が急上昇している。

—–仮想通貨取引所TAOTAOの建玉

国内仮想通貨取引所TAOTAOにおける、4月30日時点の建玉状況が開示された。ビットコインの価格推移についてどのような期待値を持っているか、利用者に判断材料のひとつとして開示したものだという。

Trade Blotter(トレードブロッター)は、TAOTAOの顧客に対して特別に公開している未決済建玉(OI)情報、指値情報、歩み値などが確認できるレポートツールのこと。

BTCが前日比12%高と大幅上昇していた局面では、TAOTAOのBTC建玉も買いに寄り95万円に95枚の買い玉が確認されている。これが半減期後の価格推移を踏まえてどのように変化するのか注目したい。

—–ビットコインのインフレ率

ビットコインのこれまでの供給による積み重ねと、半減による供給減という合わせ技によってビットコインの供給におけるインフレ率は2021年に1.8%に低下する。

半減期があるといえども、総供給が増えれば理論的には1BTC辺りの価値は薄まるが、新しく増える割合も極めて低いレベルへと推移していくということを意味する。

半減期を迎える通貨は、加えられる量が減少するため、供給(Supply)も減少する。しかし需要(Demand)は変わらないため、過去の相場では半減期前に価格が大きく上昇する傾向にあった。

半減期後の警戒ポイント

LongHashの試算では、BTC価格が半減期後6000ドル〜7000ドル程度に低迷すれば、マイナーの中にはシャットダウンして事業撤退する事業者も出てくるという。コストを賄うために、BTC投げ売りに発展する可能性もあると指摘する。(5月4日時点では、8800ドル付近を推移)

また、半減期直後〜難易度調整タイミングまでの期間には、BCHの半減期後同様、マイナーのハッシュレート(採掘速度)急落が市場価格に影響を及ぼすことも懸念される。

1日程度(144ブロック)で難易度が調整されるビットコインキャッシュは半減期後にハッシュレートが急落、一定期間ブロック生成に遅延が生じた。ビットコインの難易度調整は平均約14日(2016ブロックごと)に1回であることから、逆算すると4〜5日間は特に注意が必要だろう。

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